Top 25 Forecasts

Oregon got off to a slow start last week by managed to score 53 points in the final 3Q’s to rout a beat-up Washington team. This week they face a Cal team who is also without their starting QB Riley who is out for the year and last week Mansion hit just 50% of his passes with an 0-2 ratio but they were able to beat Washington St 20-13. LY Cal came into this game avg 49 ppg but were held to just 3 pts in the 42-3 loss. Cal has won 3 str in this series at home by 11 ppg and four of the L/7 have been decided by a TD or less but its tough to go against a Duck team that has been so prolific.

The Horned Frogs made their case last week to be included in the national title game should Auburn or Oregon lose a game down the stretch as they dominated Utah 47-7. The Frogs built a 23-0 HT lead with a 328-72 yd edge and silenced the “blackout” crowd with ESPN Gameday on hand. This week they do face a much improved San Diego St team that is led by QB Lindley who is avg 270 ypg with a 16-9 ratio but going up against a TCU defense that has not allowed a 200-yd passing game yet by any team this year (only team in FBS) will be a different animal. The Frogs move to 11-0 and with two weeks to prepare for a 1-8 New Mexico team and should be punching their tickets to the BCS for a second straight year.

All those fans that wanted Les Miles fired a few weeks ago have to be eating some crow after his Tigers beat former LSU coach Saban and Alabama last week 24-21 ending the Tide’s chance at repeating as champs. As usual Miles had some trick plays including a 4th and 1 reverse off a toss sweep that led to their final TD. Also backup QB Lee hit a crucial 47-yd pass on 3rd and long late in the 4Q which sealed the Tide’s fate. This week they get a breather with ULM who is off a heartbreaking loss to FIU in 2OT. Keep in mind the last two times LSU was in a sandwich game they had to rally back big to win against Troy and LY only beat La Tech by 8. This one won’t be as close though as the Tigers keep their BCS hopes alive.

The home team has won nine of the last ten in this series but this one maybe tough on the home Sun Devils who face a Stanford team who is fresh off an impressive 42-17 win over Arizona as the Cardinal are thinking BCS if they are able to win out. ASU meanwhile is off a heartbreaking loss to USC by 1 pt as they missed a GW FG with under 2 minutes remaining and also had a blk’d XP returned for 2 pts. Keep in mind ASU was able to hold powerful Oregon to just 380 yds earlier this season and while I think they keep it close, QB Luck and the strong Cardinal running game will prove too much.

The Cornhuskers were lucky to come out of Ames with a win last week in OT as ISU’s 2 pt conv failed as the holder underthrew a wide open rec in the EZ and was int’d. Neb was playing with their 3rd string QB who attempted only 12 passes. Kansas is also off an exciting win as they scored 35 4Q pts to stun Colorado 52-45 and it was the largest comeback in KU history. One of the more interesting stories to this game will be KU HC Gill returning to his alma mater where he played QB and was an asst cch for many years. As for the game the Huskers haven’t lost at home to the Jayhawks S/’68 and its hard to imagine them keeping this one close as NU continues their march back to the Big 12 title game.

Who would have thought before the season that Oklahoma St who was ranked #120 in my experience ratings (pg 311 of the magazine) would come into this game as a sizeable favorite against defending B12 champ Texas. However that is the case here as the Horns are reeling off another disappointing loss as they actually trailed KSt LW at one point 39-0 despite having a 412-270 yd edge but had 5 TO’s. QB Gilbert has just a 7-14 ratio and the Horns have yet to find a reliable RB. OSU meanwhile is off a 55-28 demolition of Baylor as they outgained the Bears 725-464 thanks to WR Blackmon’s 242 ttl yds (fresh off suspension). The Horns have won 12 str in this series and have only lost one time at home to OSU all the way back in 1944! Sooner or later you have to think UT will play up to their potential like they did on the road at Nebraska and I’ll call for them to get the win here.

These two teams have met only one time before back in 1989 as the Hogs won 39-7. Ark is off a dominating 41-20 win over South Carolina on the road last week and Ark QB Mallett is avg 306 ypg (67%) with a 19-8 ratio. UTEP clinched bowl elig for the first time S/’05 with their 28-14 upset of SMU last week and their QB Vittatoe also has a 19-8 ratio. Arkansas’s only losses this year came vs then-#1 Bama and to current 10-0 Auburn and while they may not play their sharpest game, still have too many weapons on offense and their defense is much improved TY allowing nearly 75 ypg less than a year ago.

The Hokies have clearly rebounded from their 0-2 start with 7 str wins with QB Taylor leading the way avg 193 pass ypg (63%) with a 16-4 ratio and also leads with 584 rush yds (6.2). Last week they had to survive a GT team that jumped out to a 14-0 lead but lost their QB on a crucial int in the 2Q. VT also had a 90 yd KR TD after GT tied it at 21 late in the 4Q.  North Carolina is off a road upset of FSU last week as QB Yates threw for a school record 439 yds. While VT has won 9 of their L/10 Nov road games, NC should have some confidence as they upset #14 VT 20-17 LY on the road and have won 6 of their L/7 gms TY adjusting well to all the suspensions.

Oklahoma had their chances last week vs A&M but made way too many mistakes. On the first play a snap went over QB Landry’s head for a safety and in the 2H opeining KO they allowed a 100 yd KR TD. They were also stopped on 4th&gl from the 1 twice and on 4th&gl from the 2, missed a 36 yd FG and dropped a sure TD pass on a fake FG. The Red Raiders had much better luck last week as QB Potts came off the bench to lead a comeback in the win over Mizzou. The home team has won 6 str in this series and nine of the L/11 have been decided by 10+ pts. I’ll call for the Sooners to rebound in a big way here as they still control their destiny in the Big 12 title race.

Nevada had one of the most productive offensive performances in college football history LW as they racked up a tm record 844 ttl yds of off in their 63-17 win at Idaho as QB Kaepernick threw for a career-high 5 TD passes. Fresno St meawhile had to rally from a 14 pt 1H deficit to win 40-34 at La Tech as RB Rouse had 286 rush yds. Nevada has dominated the LOS the last couple of years in this series as they have outgained Fresno St by a comb 933-218 on the ground. I think TY will be much more competitive as Fresno St HC Hill and his teams thrive in the underdog role against ranked teams but in the end Nev has too many weapons.

The Aggies have been a different team since QB Tannehill took over as he is avg 276 pass ypg (68%) with  a 9-3 ratio. Last week A&M got back into the Big 12 South race as they capitalized on several Sooner mistakes. Meanwhile the Bears were brought down to earth against OSU LW as they allowed 725 yds and B12 ttl off leader Griffin was held to without a TD for the first time TY. While A&M has a huge def edge (#27-79) I’ll call for the Bears to get the bounce back win as they beat A&M the last time here 41-21 with Griffin at QB.